What just happened.

So... I got it wrong.

Not in my assessment of Hillary and Trump. I still think Trump will be a nightmare. Maybe I will be wrong about that too. I hope so.

I still think Hillary would have been worse.

...but I never imagined Trump would win. I didn't even watch any coverage, initially. I went home and watched Netflix and went to bed at 9:00 PM.

The texts started coming in at 9:38... so I dragged my butt out of bed, poured myself a dram of Green Spot and shuffled in to the living room to watch TV.

It isn't that I love Trump... but I wanted to see the journalists heads explode. I was up until 2:00 or so... flipping channels between Fox, CNN, MSNBC, and NBC. It was delicious.

Why?

I will get to that in a moment. It matters.

To explain my missed call, it really comes down to the fact that I believed the polls.
I spent the last two elections scoffing at the pollsters and thinking Nate Silver was full of it, etc... and I learned my lesson. YES the polls usually underestimate the Republican... but only by a few points. I may not like the polls... but they usually end up being pretty close.

FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump a 28.6% chance of winning on election day. I figured that was low from previous experiences with polls in general. I figured he has a solid 33% chance... but I never thought he would win.

Not that it mattered much to me. I am a fiscally conservative, socially liberal libertarian at heart. I am Jeffersonian in viewpoint. Neither of these people support my views, (though I think Trump, at least, may accidentally do something good.) I supported the buffoon over the criminal... but not by much.

I can't catch a break though. When I finally allow myself to accept that the polls, while wrong, are at least MOSTLY correct... they all turn out to be completely bonkers wrong.

So we have Trump.

but WHY?

He picked up some of the rust belt states, because he told them he would put them back to work. I support this 100% in spirit... I am just not sure I believe his plan will work. I am pretty sure it wont.

Slapping tariffs on stuff while lowering the corporate tax rate is just swapping one tax for another. If you make steel more expensive, for instance, that might be great for the steel industry... but it will suck for anyone trying to get their manufacturing going who needs to.. you know... buy steel.

Economics involves balancing seen effect with unseen effect and I am just not sure Donald grasps that. Maybe I am wrong. I am all for lowering corporate taxes and regulations to where American businesses can be competitive again... that will help... but only as long as unions agree to keep their demands under control and boards don't pay CEOs financially unsupportable salaries, etc... and I see no support for that. Everything is always someone else's fault 100% these days.

Could it be that that the reason we were the manufacturing kings in the fifties is, to a great extent, that we were the only developed nation who hadn't had its manufacturing base crushed to rubble in a World War in the 40s? Maybe not... but things are different now and they probably always will be. We need to be making stuff... but it needs to be good stuff and affordable prices. If they try to recapture the great days of the 50s and 60s again... it will fail... and the rust belt will go right back to voting Democrat... who will make all sorts of promises about how taxing the rich more is going to make them open factories again.

So... I think he won by making promises to the unemployed factory workers that his stated plan of action might prevent him from keeping. I hope I am wrong. I am willing to let him give it a shot. Tariffs can be removed as quickly as they are passed. A trade war is easier to end than a real war.

Anyway... I guess I understand how he could pick up a Michigan and a Pennsylvania, but if it is by proposing a different silly plan to the ones the Dems propose... I doubt it will stick in the next election. This is a one-off unless he delivers.

Still... he won some deep blue states. I am not sure that the promise to put America back to work explains it all.

But I CAN tell you what motivated ME to get out of bed and go watch the results.

I am sick to death of being called a sexist, racist, homophobic, hick from flyover country for having well thought out and researched opinions that have nothing whatsoever to do with sex or race.

I am sick of arrogant, elitist c*nts from big cities (which are financially on the brink of collapse) patiently explain to me concepts that I know well and grew out of believing 25 years ago.

I am sick of it.

I am a peaceful, pretty well-read guy who minds his own business. I look at things deeply and think over them at length. I never isolate myself from other viewpoints... and I will discuss things at length with anyone if I have the time.

Yet I endure a daily onslaught of being dismissed and called racist and sexist for things like my tendancy to hold all people to the same standard. I am mocked for suggesting that perhaps... PERHAPS... it is racist and sexist to NOT hold people to the same standard.

...and I am sick of it.

Back to Trump.

I believe a large part of Trump's support is not support for Trump at all.

I believe that Trump won, in part, because the half of the country is sick to death of being called racist, sexist, homophobic, idiots by people who arrogantly dismiss their legitimate concerns.

Just an example....

If you believe that the best way to help a poor man is by robbing a rich man and handing the money to the poor man.... and *I* honestly believe the best way to help a poor man is to hand him a rake and point him to the rich mans lawn... that DOESN'T mean I am "for the exploitation of the poor proletariat at the hands of the bourgeoisie!"

It means that I believe the value of work to a man's mind and spirit.

You might disagree. I am happy to buy you a beer and discuss why I think Marxist theory is a pile of crap. I can do it with a smile and am happy to agree to disagree. I might call you wrong, silly, crazy, or immature... but I wont call you evil.

.... yet people like me get derided as evil a thousand times a day.

I think a lot of the Trump vote was just people voting for the chance to watch brains explode among arrogant leftists who lecture us all day every day. I am certainly enjoying it... even though I think Trump will probably be a nightmare.

There are two things I hate worse than the thought of a Trump presidency.

1. the thought of a Hillary Clinton presidency.
2. listening to a bunch of arrogant, intellectually infantile leftists call me a racist and sexist bigot for daring to have a different viewpoint than them.

I would pay good money to swap Trump with Condoleeza Rice right now. (Like... all of it that I have.) I don't care about race or sex... I care about ideas.

Look... I understand a loss hurts. (Welcome to my world for the last decade.) The Trump presidency will be a rough ride for everyone I think. 

BUT... (and this advice is worth what you paid for it...)

It MIGHT be that the best way of dealing with a Trump victory is NOT by getting online and saying that Trump only won because racist, sexist hicks voted for him.

Now that we have who we can pretty much all agree is a bumbling oaf as our president... maybe we can meet between the trenches and talk this stuff out without all the heated hyperbole. I hope so.

But judging from the news networks and facebook feed.. I dont have much hope.

MSNBC was trying to make it about race hours before they even called it. (Despite the fact that Trump did better with minorities than Romney.) They were also trying to make it about sex... (even though there were far more people who voted FOR Hillary simply because she was a woman than would have if she had been a man.)

It seems like the clueless left who ginned up the Trump vote by calling everyone racist has prescribed more of the same as a solution.